Post-Communist Transformations

Post-Communism Lecture

Collapse of Communism

Gorbachev - came into power when Chernenko dies (succeeded Andropov)

came into power on March 10, 1985

always seen as a reformer - but the important thing to remember is he BELIEVED IN COMMUNISM

not a democrat

Just felt communism needed to be REFORMED

Immediately set himself apart from other premiers - very youthful, very engaging, very willing to make Soviet life better--better at public images - would actually MINGLE with people, brought family into spotlight, etc

first - replaced many Kremlin and government personnel - recognized some people had been in offices for too long, needed to shake things up

wanted to reverse Brezhnev era of corruption

called the "bloodless purge"

Real reforms began in 1986 and 1987 - after he solidified leadership and power and became more comfortable

Three pronged approach:

Perestroika - restructuring

Involved Decentralization of political and economic decision making

Devolution of power to local states and governors

Increased openness - not as much censorship

Modernization of technology

New foreign policy - emphasized foreign interdependence

1986 27th Party Congress - openly called for "radical reform"

saw Lenin's New Economic Policy as the perfect ideal

Opened the door for change - but a lot of resistance from other Duma members

Glasnost - openness

wanted a more open society - but doesn't mean he wanted to undermine the supremacy of the party

Said had to have glasnost if perestroika were to work

Also, glasnost would break those centers of power that had grown corrupt and irresponsive to the needs of the people (old party apparatchiks)

Openness would shine a light on corruption, inefficiency, and elite privileges

Chernobyl brought more urgency for the need for glasnost within government bureaucracy, need to share information pivotal, could have prevented massive difficulties

Media - gave Aleksandr Yakovlev (just died) responsibility over social sciences, culture, and media - loosened control over media considerably, more and more contemporary issues were allowed to be discussed in papers - very revolutionary

even tackled the long-taboo subject of Stalin like never before

Demokratizatsia

1987 - these reforms were not welcomed by bureaucrats and existing Duma members. Gorbachev recognized that he would have to remove them from power, so that they wouldn't interrupt his reforms

Introduced democratisation - claimed economic reform needed to be accompanied by political reform

party leaders had become too isolated from the public, needed elections

also, decided to separate the affairs of PARTY and STATE - that way, the two wouldn't become intermingled with drastic consequences

These reforms would open up the events for the ultimate collapse of the Soviet Union, the exact opposite of what Gorbachev had worked for

Soviets losing control over economy and political aspects of the state

February 7 - 1990 - Communist Party gave up its monopoly on power

Baltic states declare independence

August Coup - Gorbachev wanted to decentralize some of the USSR's power to the republics, created a treaty for them to sign. Basically would mean the end of the USSR, and the beginning of a new Russia

This idea feared by Gorbachev's govt - his VP, PM, Defense Minister, KGB chief decided to orchestrate a COUP

Gorbachev in Crimea on vacation - they put him under house arrest for 3 days, finally had to let him return to power

End of Gorbachev's power - Russian government took over Union government (under Yeltsin) one ministry at a time

Soviet republics declared independence one after another - Dec 8, 1991 - USSR formally dissolved

So was it purely Gorbachev's actions which brought down the USSR, or was it background?

STRUCTURE VS AGENCY

Dallin: Spread of Corruption - corruption rampant, wanton violation of laws, no area was protected from this

EROSION OF IDEOLOGY - could never look at the Bolsheviks as being omniscient and always wise, too many things went wrong in USSR to believe that, massive disillusionment, beginning with Khruschev's secret speech, Marxist dream never materialized (pardon the pun)

SOCIAL CHANGE - yes, greater education of the masses, but in the Brezhnev area, they realized there were no opportunities for advancement - which slowed down productivity considerably

INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMNENT - pressures and demands of the nuclear program finally caught up with the USSR, glasnost opened up foreign media - Soviets can compare their life with others (Soviet life was bad), new technology (telephones, television) made Soviets realize they were missing out on a lot

ECONOMIC DECLINE - economists maintain that economy had been declining since 1960s and needed to be reformed THEN. "Defense burden" proved too great.

POST COLLAPSE - WHAT HAPPENED?

Yeltsin in power:

President of Russia

more economic restructuring : Sharp reduction in govt spending

reduce govt deficit

govt collects new taxes

lifted price controls on 90% of goods, causing prices to

skyrocket

however, still controlled prices on vodka, bread, sugar, and

dairy products

Govt created LOTS of money - led to inflation

PRIVATIZATION - selling state industries to private citizens

by the end of 1993 - 85% of Russian small enterprises were privatized

First - vouchers - sort like taking stock, available to public

However, controlled by OLIGARCHS - who made a lot of money by this

massive corruption

Second - direct cash sales of stocks in state enterprises

However, didn't really work well - all went to oligarchy

Basically, people were disappointed that the only people to profit from privatisation were people with inside government contacts

Different philosophies regarding economic liberalisation:

Shock therapy

advocated by Jeffrey Sachs (member of IMF and World Bank)

includes: sudden release of price/currency controls

withdrawal of state subsidies

immediate trade liberalization within the country

Criticisms: very painful process, results in very high unemployment initially (20-40 %), high price inflation, and there usually isn't a sufficient body of law (property laws, etc) to catch up with reforms

However - highly successful in Poland - steady economic growth after initial crash, confidence in system

Gradual reform

said, economic and political reform need to occur simultaneously

this way, enable law to REGULATE the market, prevent wide scale corruption and theft

ex: China - introduces market reform very slowly, allows population to digest change at their own pace

allows for the development of mores and trust in the system to enable system to work efficiently

Gross disparities of outcome in the FSU

Argument about West to East: scholars argue that the farther West a country lies, the more democratic and economically liberal they are

While the more Easterly you travel - the more autocratic and economically stagnated

Outlier/exception: Mongolia

Examples: Hungary vs Uzbekistan

Hungary

Transition was very different from Russia, which was top-down and autocratic

Transition in Hungary: roundtable approach

Invited all major parties at the time to have a say in how the transition should occur

Involved former Communist deputies as well as new democratic groups

State NEVER collapsed - it just made a peaceful transition

Developed economic liberalism AND political liberalism simultaneously

First elections - communist party fared poorly - populist, center-right, and liberal parties did well

set the stage for future elections, and peaceful transitions of power

PATH DEPENDENCE ARGUMENT

Uzbekistan

Transition was worse than Russia's

Islam Karimov - head of CPu

When Uzbekistan declared independence, Karimov assumed presidency

Held elections in December 29 of the same year - gained 86% of the vote

Forced democratic opponents like Mohammad Solih to flee the country

Cracked down on Erk and Birlik - two key opposing parties

Term was set to expire in 1995 - in a very criticized referendum, said the results gave him permission to extend power to 2000. Elections in 2000 - got 91.9% of the vote

Karimov's rule due to end in 2005 - but parliament extended it to 2007

Repeatedly criticized for torture - UN has cited Uzbekistan for torture that is "institutionalized, systematic, and rampant"

Boiling people to death

Freedom house ranks it 7 for political rights and 7 for political liberties - Human Rights Watch rates it as one of the worst countries in the world

General Survey:

Baltic States

Were first to declare independence from Soviet Union

all three are liberal democracies, parliamentary republics, with quickly growing economies

point to period of independence - 1920-1940 - where they were democratic, said it made transition easier

immediately seized upon desire to join Western World and Europe upon independence

However, have had problems with extensive Russian minorities, imposing language laws and citizenship restrictions

Central Asian States

Have had varying degrees of democratic and economic success

Tajikistan - one of the poorest countries in the world - had civil war from 1992-1997

People assumed the war was between democrats and Islamists - not true

Fought between Moscow-based government and disenfranchised provinces

Right now, struggling to democratize and grow economically

Kazakhstan - greater success with democracy, however, Nazarbayev has been in power since 1990

however, there are regular elections with competing groups, and a degree of free media

Worrisome trend that it's sliding into authoritarianism - ex: 90% voted in favor of Nazarbayev in 2005 elections, increasing clampdown on media

50% Russian, 50% Kazakh - potentially divisive cleavage in society

Transcaucasus

Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan

Armenia - parliamentary democracy, although suffers from electoral difficulties, fairness of polls

Levon Ter-Petrossian president from 1990 to 1998, when protesters drove him from power - then PM was killed in attack on National Assembly - currently, Robert Kocharian is president, stabilized country

Azerbaijan - ruled by Aliev clan, recently held an illegitimate election, trying to oust him from power

Georgia - currently under a democratic regime of Saakashvili - Columbia Law School - pushed for greater openness and democratization

However - threats to stability in Ajaria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia

Western States

Ukraine - currently under a democratic regime, under Yukaschenko

Moldova - resisting reunification with Romania

Belarus - the last totalitarian state in Europe - Aleksandr Lukaschenko since 1994

came to power democratically

originally attempted to re-integrate Belarus (White Russia) into Russia

No real economic reform has occurred in Belarus

reversed all changes in economy - reinstated command economy

heavily dependent on Russia for oil and gas

Parliament attempted to impeach him - dissolved Parliament

Now, pushing to eliminate presidential term limits

Very repressive - also beheads journalists

No real hope for reform from within

Changes in post- Soviet World

ROSE REVOLUTION - Georgia, 1999

Eduard Shevardnadze in power - used to be in Gorbachev's team of pro-democratisation

Ruled since 1992 - became increasingly corrupt, nepotism in family

Parliamentary elections - Nov 2, 2003 - denounced as SERIOUSLY FLAWED

Massive demonstrations outside of Parliament building - then spread to other cities

Protesters all held roses in their hands outside -

Opposition members in Parliament - interrupted Shevardnadze's speech, forced him to escape with bodyguards

attempted to call martial law - police refused to cooperate - president resigned

fresh elections were held - Saakashvili elected President - has delivered solidly on bringing in the breakaway provinces and in ruling fairly

ORANGE REVOLUTION - UKRAINE - OCTOBER 2005

Similar pattern - presidential election of 2004 - voter fraud, electoral rigging

Orange - was the campaign color of Yukaschenko

general strikes at all universities

camps set up outside Parliament, 24 hour protests for days

as a result, election results were annulled - second elections held Dec 26, 2004 - Yuschenko elected President

TULIP REVOLUTION- KYRGYZSTAN - MARCH 2005

Parliamentary elections of February 27 and March 13 - declared rigged by international observers

Revolution set to oust Akayev (ruling authoritarian) and his family

Protests began in the South (other side of the Tien Shan mountains) but gradually made its

way to the North, where Bishkek (the capital) is

April 4 - Akayev resigns

April 11 - Kyrgyz Parliament ratified resignation

Felix Kulov, former political prisoner, now in power - but state still suffering from corruption and bad governance

Revolutions:

signal a real push towards democratization amongst former Soviet states

reflect the lack of Moscow's power to prevent democratization (Putin has tried)

reflects a more Western-oriented policy, rather than a Moscow-oriented one

World is hoping for more in Azerbaijan, Belarus, other states in Central Asia

Where does Russia lie?

VLADIMIR PUTIN

former KGB head in Soviet Union

Chosen by Yeltsin to run for president - immensely popular - believed he would impose order and stability onto Russia - still reeling from the collapse of the economy and the USSR

Also built up popularity by first Chechen war

After Chechen terrorists attempted to infiltrate Russia (bombing of Moscow apartment houses), initiated brutal response on Grozny and surrounding areas

However - after 2 chechen wars and too much loss of life on both sides, Russians are beginning to criticize Putin for engaging in war

Now: a threat to Russian democracy

Took over national television

Decreased the power of local governors

Converted Parliament into a rubber stamp

Jailed the main financier of the opposition (Yukos - Mikhail Khordokovsky)

Intimidate would be challengers from contesting power

2003 - really started to turn authoritarian

Put former KGB officers in charge of key ministries

Wants to revive Soviet past - important part of history

Attempted to amend the constitution so that the president could choose governors

Just recently, outlawed NGOs from working within Russia

What direction will Russia go in, after 2008, when Putin cannot run again?